Reflections of the French election

The political pundits are certain that Macron will win the French presidential election. However, they have been just as certain before, repeatedly; and repeatedly they have been proven wrong. In case you have forgotten, you can read about their arrogance here.

 

The certainty that Macron will win seems to me to be more a case of wishful thinking than serious political analysis. Macron is a terrible candidate. His record is one which does not appeal to the vast majority of the French population. A Rothschild banker. Economy minister under Hollande, responsible for the so called Labour Reform, which Hollande had to push through by presidential decree against the will of the parliament and the people. Macron is a member of the neoliberal globalist elite. He infamously said there is no such thing as French culture. He is in favour of kowtowing to the European Union. He is in favour of open borders. He is in favour of reducing French workers' rights. He is in favour of promoting the interests of global finance capital. The only things Macron has going for him is the finance of the corporate elite and the French media behaving as though it is his public relations arm. He has received massive media coverage and it is uniformly positive.

 

In contrast, the French media have done everything they can to demonise Marine Le Pen. Yet in the first round of the election, Le Pen came a close second to Macron. This was because she is in favour of policies that are in the interests of the French people. She has promised a referendum on EU membership. She wants to reduce immigration. She wants to secure France's borders. She wants to improve the conditions of French workers. It would be absurd for the French media to criticise these policies - so they don't; rather they call Marine Le Pen names - fascist is their favourite, but racist, Islamophobe, xenophobe, and all the rest are everyday fare. Apparently, they did not notice that such name calling did not work in Britain or America last year, or maybe they think such name calling did work in Austria and the Netherlands. But I suspect, it is simply that they have no other tactic.

 

So turning to the electoral arithmetic. Based on first round voting, Macron has approximately twenty percent support, Le Pen has about eighteen. The votes that went to the other nine candidates are now available for either Le Pen or Macron. It is difficult to see where Macron can pick up these votes, nothwithstanding the fact that the whole French political establishment is telling the French to vote for Macron. The reason for this is that none of the other candidates ran on a platform that remotely resembles Macron's positions. This was because they had to a large extent adopted Le Pen's positions and rhetoric (much like the Dutch Prime Minister did against Wilders). Thus, assuming the voters in the first round voted for policy postions, logically the vast majority of those who voted for the excluded candidates should transfer their votes to Le Pen. If one takes the single issue of the European Union, using the first round as a poll, Le Pen should have sixty percent of the vote. Strangely, the political pundits do not seem to have considered such electoral calculations, which looks a lot like motivated reasoning - after all, predicting the inevitable victory of your candidate is a well worn tactic of propagandists the world over.

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Comments (4)

  1. jaageet

    My money is on Le Pen.

    April 28, 2017
  2. wirelessguru1

    I estimate the French vote fraud to be around 5%.

    April 28, 2017
    1. stevehayes13

      On basis of?

      April 29, 2017
      1. wirelessguru1

        ..of what just happens on phase 1…

        April 29, 2017